AU Interactive
« Media Temple’s New Grid Server
Is your blog too heavy? »

Zune and PS3: Two remarkable failures

I’m going to go ahead and make some predictions. I may end up being wrong (not the first time), but this is how I see events unfolding: both Microsoft’s Zune and Playstation’s PS3 will be significant market failures.

There has been a lot of hype around Zune. I think some people will buy them but Apple will remain the leader. This won’t sit well with Microsoft who will keep losing market share in the personal computing market as well. The Zune will be a large waste of their time and money.

Sony’s beleagured PS3 will probably be delayed once more, and will fizzle as it comes out into the market. It will be too expensive, too unreliable, ahead of its time. I believe they tried to do too much and will overstep the market. Nintendo will make a surprising upsurge and take away a lot of the video game market with their new console and portable. Microsoft and Xbox will have a pretty good holiday season, but the real surprise will be Nintendo.

October 20, 2006 · Filed under lame 2.0

Gareth said,

October 20, 2006 @ 9:26 pm

I’d have to agree with your predictions of the future. I don’t know if it’s because I want that to happen or because it seems logical that it wil happen.

Sony seem to be doing everything wrong, Microsoft seem to have promised a lot (or is it that the internets speculated too much) and not delivered on the Zune, just like with vista.

Nintendo on the other hand seem to be doing everything right, the Wii sounds fresh and exciting, it isn’t the same old console and games with a graphics upgrade.

Apple + iTunes + iPod, they don’t have to do anything, they are already on top, they just haveto keep their current userbase happy and they’ll stay there.

M said,

October 21, 2006 @ 12:11 am

No, PS3 most likely won’t be delayed again. According to gamespot, it’s going to cost $399 (even though it costs $494 to make). How is $399 too expesnive for an entertainment system with an integrated bluray disc player?

I don’t believe PS3 will be “too unreliable”. There will probably be a flaw(s), but not a one(s) that makes it unreliable.

If there’s any system that would take over the market in case of PS3’s faliure (god forbid), it would be Microsoft’s xbox360, not Nintendo’s Wii. Everyone knows that Nintendo’s audience are kids. Even the “serious” games will probably be ports from another system (or will be released on other system), so there’s nothing to worry Sony nor Microsoft.

Just my two cents.

Joe said,

October 21, 2006 @ 10:00 am

I partly agree with your oh-so-risky-could-easily-be-totally-wrong prediction, mr blog poster (sorry can’t find your name).
Zune has virtually no advantages over iPod, and a lot of disadvantages, the main one being that it’s not an iPod made by Apple. No one thinks Microsoft is cool.
I think you’ve probably exaggerated the PS3 failure, but I do agree it will do a lot worse than PS1 and PS2 did. Mainly from being too expensive. I really doubt it will be unreliable in a serious way. Xbox 360s were unreliable to an extent when launched, but it didn’t hurt sales really.
But I really do think Sony could do a Dreamcast - too much to soon, like you said.
I doubt Nintendo will do better than Microsoft this end of year (excluding DS), but I do agree they’ll catch up a lot.

And M, an entertainment system with an integrated bluray disc player is too expensive when an entertainment system without bluray player is a lot cheaper, and no one really wants a bluray player.
And not everyone knows Nintendo’s audience is kids. That’s typical uninformed /fanboy like nonsense.

That post and comment provoked me a bit..

Markus said,

October 21, 2006 @ 1:48 pm

Overall, I think the Xbox 360 will remain the leader - I agree, but I’m saying Nintendo will probably have the most impressive growth.

I also have to disagree with the “just kids” remark. I think there will be plenty of adults who will want to pretend they’re fat Italian plumbers.

If the blueray disk becomes the Betamax in the format-war, that will be another huge blow for PS3 - it’s just too large a risk to take for a company that’s teetering on the edge as much as Sony is.

M said,

October 24, 2006 @ 3:55 am

Don’t get me wrong, I myself enjoy playing Mario games (Mario party, Mario Kart…etc), but i meant that Nintendo’s consoles have always focused on making these kind of games that appeal the younger audience more than casual gamers. Sure, i can own a wii system and enjoy playing it, but i don’t expect to get my horror/violence/shooting/whatever-gets-an-M-rating fix on a Nintendo system.

Nintendo Wii will most likely succeed (as always), but there’s no way it would compete with either xbox360 or PS3, because these consoles (Wii in one hand and xb360/Ps3 in the other) are going in different ways.

As for Bluray, it will definitely benefit game developers (in the future at least) since they can add contents with much bigger size.

At the end of the day, i don’t really care who does well and who doesn’t. I’ll just buy the system with the most entertaining games (Wii is already on my list for the Legend of Zelda).

Markus said,

October 24, 2006 @ 10:11 am

I’ll buy any system at any price as long as it plays the newest version of Grand Theft Auto. I’m not a gamer, but GTA is like crack for me. It’s how I got into a PSP.

El Mastero said,

February 26, 2008 @ 8:02 pm

Time to eat crow. PS3 rocks and hd-dvd is going the way of the dodo. X-Box 360 will be around for a while but will definitely start to take a back seat to the PS3. The sales are phenomenally in Sony’s favor.

Markus said,

February 28, 2008 @ 11:27 am

Yeah, El Mastero. I just got a PS3 last week, so I guess I was wrong about that. However, I was not wrong about the success of the Wii ;)

Leave a Comment